Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Card Expenditures in Türkiye: An Asymmetric Approach

Abstract

In this study, the macroeconomic determinants of credit card expenditures in Turkey are investigated through an asymmetric framework utilizing monthly data spanning the period from March 2014 to March 2025. The analysis explores the relationship between credit card spending and key macroeconomic indicators, namely interest rates, the real effective exchange rate, the consumer price index, money supply, and the real sector confidence index. The data, sourced from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), are analyzed using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to capture potential asymmetries in the short- and long-run dynamics. The empirical findings indicate that the effects of macroeconomic variables on credit card expenditures vary according to the direction of the shocks. In the short run, positive and negative changes in the confidence index, money supply, interest rates, and exchange rate are associated with increases in credit card usage, while positive inflation shocks are found to dampen expenditures with a lag. In the long run, both increases in the confidence index and interest rates have a statistically significant and positive effect on credit card expenditures, whereas contractions in money supply similarly stimulate card-based spending. By contrast, the exchange rate and inflation do not exhibit statistically significant long-run effects on credit card expenditures.